Global energy-related and process-related CO₂ emissions will fall 44% between today and 2050, according to DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2026 — but the Norwegian risk management organisation says the world will still fall far short of net zero and is heading toward 2.3°C of warming by 2100.

The forecast carries direct implications for textile and soft goods manufacturers, whose production footprint sits squarely in the energy-intensive manufacturing tiers that decarbonisation timelines — and an expanding set of buyer-side Scope 3 requirements — now target.

DNV positions the outlook as its single "most likely" forecast for the global energy system through 2060, not a scenario or an ambition model. That distinction matters for sourcing teams: the numbers describe the trajectory factories and energy grids will actually follow, barring policy shifts, rather than the commitments brands have signed up to.

How fast does the fossil fuel share decline?

The outlook projects fossil fuels' share of primary energy falling from approximately 80% today to 51% in 2050, and below 40% by 2060.

That pace means the majority of energy consumed by garment, footwear and home-textile manufacturing hubs in Asia and elsewhere will still be fossil-based at mid-century. Suppliers calculating renewable electricity transitions against brand decarbonisation deadlines face a structural gap: grid decarbonisation arrives slower than most corporate net-zero targets assume.

For sourcing executives, the divergence forces a choice between:

• Investing in on-site or contracted renewable capacity at supplier level, rather than relying on grid greening
• Recalculating Scope 3 emissions trajectories with DNV's more conservative grid mix assumptions
• Prioritising suppliers in markets with faster-than-average clean energy buildout

What does the 2.3°C trajectory mean for compliance planning?

DNV's conclusion that the world is heading toward 2.3°C of warming by 2100, while remaining far from net zero, signals that regulatory pressure on energy-intensive manufacturing will likely intensify rather than ease.

Emissions falling 44% by 2050 represents progress, but the gap between that trajectory and net zero defines the compliance environment apparel and soft goods producers will operate in: tightening carbon reporting mandates, carbon border mechanisms and buyer scorecards across the coming decades.

The sourcing decision the forecast forces is straightforward. Energy mix at the factory level — not country-level pledges — becomes the decisive variable in supplier selection, and suppliers with credible renewable energy access will hold a growing commercial advantage as the 2050 horizon approaches.