Six vessels came under attack in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the highest single-day tally of the conflict, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) data. One of them was a container ship — the first confirmed box-ship strike in the current wave — and the escalation lands in the middle of the Asia-Europe tender season.

The Cyprus-flagged container vessel GFS Galaxy was hit by an unidentified projectile in the early hours of Sunday, according to Cyprus's Deputy Ministry of Shipping. The Omani Navy rescued 23 crew members after they abandoned ship; one engineer remains missing. The vessel is under tow to the Port of Khor Fakkan in the UAE while the search continues.

For softgoods shippers, the timing matters. The fourth-quarter window is when carriers and importers negotiate the annual contracts that take effect Jan. 1, and freight buyers are bargaining from a position of unusual strength.

What is happening to rates?

Spot rates on Far East-to-Europe lanes have fallen sharply since the post-Hormuz crisis peak in July, as more carriers resumed Red Sea transits. Xeneta data released Thursday shows the scale of the decline:

• Mediterranean destinations: down 43 percent since July 1, to $4,007 per 40-foot container
• Northern Europe: down 34 percent, to $3,645 on average
• Far East-to-U.S. West Coast: down $2 to $8,336 per FEU, the first dip since mid-September

"For European shippers, tender season is in full force and falling short-term rates are a welcome development as they negotiate long-term contracts, because they also benchmark against the short-term market," Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said Thursday.

He added that demand had been strong all year but could not keep growing at double digits indefinitely. "As demand eases from a very high level, the fight for capacity eases too, and even freight forwarders are now getting better deals from carriers in long-term contract negotiations," Sand said. In plain terms: apparel and textile importers locking 2026 contracts now are doing so at the most favourable moment in months.

How bad is the security picture?

The weekend onslaught also hit two crude oil tankers and three refined product tankers. The crude carriers belong to China's New Treasure Shipping and South Korea's Sinokor, the Financial Times reported.

India's government named two of the product tankers: the MT Petro Dolphin, hit by a drone at the Sohar anchorage with two of its 11 crew missing, and the MT Valthera, struck near the strait, which caught fire with all 11 crew reported safe. India's foreign ministry called the attacks "deeply concerning" and demanded an immediate end to the Middle East conflict.

UKMTO issued fresh warnings Monday that a crude tanker and a product tanker had been struck while transiting the strait. In total, 24 ships were hit in the two weeks to Sunday, according to FT calculations based on UKMTO reports and European security sources — nearly double the 13 struck during the previous peak in the first two weeks of March. The International Maritime Organization's verified count, compiled in early October, put seafarer deaths at 24 since the conflict began on Feb. 28, before Sunday's three missing.

Is Gulf cargo capacity at risk?

Oman's Sohar Port now absorbs more than 180,000 TEUs a week in displaced cargo, Xeneta's September reliability data shows. That is still less than half the 423,000 TEUs a week that moved through the UAE's Port of Jebel Ali before the war in Iran started. Any garment and footwear sourcing routed through UAE gateways continues to face structural rerouting, not just risk premiums.

Oil flows tell the same story. Gulf shipments averaged 15.5 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the war began, according to Kpler. Just 2.9 million barrels moved through the waterway on Sunday, the lowest in October, with the seven-day average running about 43 percent below pre-conflict levels, Kpler figures published Tuesday showed. The company cautioned the numbers could revise upward as satellite tracking improves.

Brent crude settled at $106.65 a barrel on Monday, its highest since Sept. 15, then eased about 1 percent to around $105 on Tuesday. President Donald Trump said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, and his administration temporarily eased U.S. sanctions on Russian fuel. The Institute for the Study of War said Iran "may be developing its anti-ship missile capabilities to improve its ability to target vessels."

What should sourcing teams do?

The commercial calculation is now two-sided. Falling spot rates argue for locking long-term Asia-Europe contracts now, but the first container-ship strike and a record attack day argue for demanding war-risk clauses, routing contingencies via Sohar or non-Gulf transhipment, and shorter contract tenors. Sourcing directors negotiating January contracts must price both the discount and the disruption scenario before signing.