Roughly 16 percent of crude tanker tonnage sits under U.S. sanctions, and even lifting those designations would barely dent container shipping costs, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.

Reuters reported Wednesday that the Trump administration is weighing eased sanctions on "shadow fleet" vessels that have carried oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The stated goal is lower freight rates. Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, tested that claim against the arithmetic and found it thin.

Removing the tanker sanctions "will not have a major impact on oil prices, as this would not improve oil supply unless the sanctions on these countries' oil exports were also removed," Damas said. Carriers have passed higher fuel costs to shippers for months. Drewry expects the impact on those surcharges "will likely be limited," he added.

What could actually fall?

One lever exists: tonnage. "Freight costs might decline from current historic highs due to improved availability of tonnage," Damas said. If designations lift, sanctioned tankers could rejoin the mainstream fleet.

He put numbers on the upside. Moving a barrel from West Africa to China cost about $4 in 2025, then $7.30 before the war, $21 in September and $37 on Wednesday. A significant improvement in tonnage supply could cut that route's freight cost by $15 to $20 a barrel, he said.

The caveat follows the promise. Oil futures price only a small easing of crude over the coming months. Brent crude inched to about $106 at noon Thursday, testing October's highs.

How big is the shadow fleet?

Kpler Risk & Compliance data, published Thursday by MarineTraffic, counted 3,234 shadow fleet vessels in September. That is a 12-month high. Some 62 vessels gained the classification that month; 26 were flagged for dark activity, AIS spoofing or false flags. The fleet keeps growing while Washington debates shrinking it.

Companies would apply to the Treasury Department for authorization to use the vessels for "legal oil," according to the report. Energy Secretary Chris Wright raised the idea in a video message to the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.

Why the relief has a ceiling

Energy Aspects, in a note on the proposal, questioned whether freight relief arrives at all. The consultancy said most sanctioned tankers have traded actively regardless, so easing designations would not greatly affect rates. A small number of vessels could add capacity for shuttle runs through the Strait of Hormuz, it conceded.

One constraint sits outside Washington's reach. Ship insurers would still answer to European and British regulations. That caps whatever an American move could deliver.

The timing also carries political weight. The talks come days after President Donald Trump temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, several European countries and many U.S. lawmakers criticized that move. The Energy Department told Reuters that relieving shadow fleet sanctions would not help Russia move oil or oil products.

Where surcharges stand now

Carriers keep passing on the fuel burden. Maersk raised its emergency fuel surcharge to 20 percent effective Monday, citing soaring energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, Reuters reported. CMA CGM revised its own emergency fuel surcharge effective Oct. 1 to $265 per 20-foot container on head hauls, per a company advisory.

Container rates have climbed since the war in Iran began in late February, driven by oil price escalation and disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. That conduit handled roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and natural gas supply before the war. Container shipping has largely bypassed it for nearly eight months.

Drewry's World Container Index, covering eight major trade lanes, sat at $4,485 per 40-foot container as of Thursday. That figure is up more than 136 percent from $1,899 on Feb. 26 and has held above $4,000 since the last week of June.

Thursday's reading rose 3 percent week over week, rebounding after three straight weekly declines. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles prices increased 3 percent to $7,884. Shanghai-to-New York fell 1 percent to $10,075.

What does this change for sourcing teams?

Not much yet. The proposal remains unconfirmed policy talk, reported by Reuters, and Drewry's own assessment limits the upside to fuel surcharges. Shippers budgeting into 2026 should treat current surcharge levels as the base case until Treasury issues actual authorizations and Brent moves off $106. Any rate relief that does materialize will come through tanker tonnage, not through the fuel line of the invoice.