What is the scale of September's import surge?

US container imports reached 2,546,261 twenty-foot equivalent units in September — a record for the month and 10.3% above the prior-year period, according to Descartes Systems Group's Global Shipping Report. Volumes ran 24.8% above September 2019, the NRF noted, extending an unusually prolonged peak shipping window for softgoods, electronics and general merchandise retailers.

The National Retail Federation and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates expect the stretch to finally ease, but the trade group's October Global Port Tracker now points to higher flows than it had projected a month ago.

• October: 2.25 million TEUs, up 8.5% year over year
• November: 2 million TEUs, down 1% annually
• December: 2.02 million TEUs

The October estimate is 6.6% above the 2.11 million TEUs the NRF forecast in September. Full-year 2026 imports are now pegged at 25.8 million TEUs, up 1.4% from 2025.

"Even with any fluctuations in final data, we're likely past the busiest part of the year," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. Gold added that the season "started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error."

Most holiday merchandise has already cleared US ports, Gold said. Retailers now manage last-minute replenishment and prepare for early 2027.

How did the origin mix move?

China supplied 924,454 TEUs of September's US-bound containers, up 21.2% from a year earlier. China accounted for 36.3% of total flows, up from 34% in August.

Seven of the ten leading origin countries tracked by Descartes recorded month-over-month declines. China, India and Taiwan posted gains, with China's growth largely absorbing the decreases elsewhere.

For apparel and home textile sourcing teams, the data underlines continued reliance on Chinese mill capacity heading into the spring 2027 selling cycle. Diversification programs have lifted alternative origins in prior NRF reports, yet China remains the dominant single source for containerised softgoods by a wide margin.

What is happening to inventory and warehouse capacity?

The September Logistics Managers' Index showed inventory levels rising 6.1 points to 58.9 — a faster expansion pace after a flat August. The build concentrated among wholesalers and upstream operators preparing fourth-quarter sell-through.

Warehouse capacity contracted 14.2 points to 39.3 on the index, while utilisation expanded to 64.3. Transportation capacity fell to 34.4, the tenth straight monthly contraction. The transportation price sub-index climbed to 92.7.

For softgoods importers running through holiday clearance and into Q1 2027, the combination of rising inventory and tightening warehouse space points to a storage squeeze that will compound as the peak season recedes.

How did ports perform?

West Coast gateways gained container share in September. Several East and Gulf Coast ports posted declines. Transit delays rose at eight of the ten largest US container ports, Descartes reported. The Port of New York and New Jersey recorded the sharpest deterioration, with average delays climbing 1.5 days to 8.3 days.

Jackson Wood, vice president of product management for trade regulations at Descartes and author of the report, said record September volumes show "U.S. maritime trade remains remarkably strong despite persistent trade and geopolitical pressures."

Wood added that importers need "visibility into changing costs, capacity and trade conditions, along with the flexibility to adjust sourcing and routing decisions."

What is consumer demand telling sourcing teams?

September retail sales excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations rose 4.05% year over year and 0.28% from August, per the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. Core retail sales, which also strip out restaurants, climbed 3.73% annually.

"Core economic indicators are broadly flat or weakening slightly month over month recently," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. Consumers remain "confident and cautious at the same time," he added, with confidence indexes at multi-year lows even as spending holds.

The sourcing decision

Softgoods buyers now face a narrower late-season replenishment window than the September tracker implied. The 6.6% upward revision to October volumes means cargo is already committed for arrival after the holiday pull, locking product mix decisions through Q1 2027. Sourcing teams leaning on China-origin fabrics and finished goods should plan for continued share leadership into early next year, with India and Taiwan offering measured, not material, upside. Buyers writing spring 2027 programmes should match the 8.5% October surge against NRF's projected 1% November dip, and secure third-party warehouse space before Q4 utilisation tightens further.